Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Greece's Debt problems...versus SA's?

Time Magazine Nov 21, 2011 reported that; "No financial rescue plan alone can fix the political and social problems that are the true source of Greece's debt".
The article continues; "After Greece emerged from military rule in 1974, its politics calcified into a system of institutionalised cronyism, with party leaders using control of the public sector to extract bribes in exchange for jobs and political favours. Corruption at the top helped foster a culture of unaccountability that permeates all levels of society. Many Greeks dodge their taxes, shorting the public coffers of some 22 billion euros in revenue every year. Powerful public unions have procured unsustainably costly and generous benefits for public workers.

Now if I did not lead the article by stating that this was about Greece, what would you have thought?.........South Africa? well it sounds just like this corrupted state of ours does it not? We are continually increasing borrowings to fund a gradually widening deficit, which is based upon ever-increasing social benefits rather than subsidising economic growth. Unemployment continues to rise, government interference in regulation is on the increase, corruption by cronyism continues unabated and public sector wages and employment is ballooning, whilst Unions continue to defend high labour costs to the detriment of employment, productivity and competitiveness.

Is this going to get better soon? Well the answer is emphatically NO!! We do not need 2 successive quarters of almost zero growth for economists to shout hooray we are "recovering"!!, we now need 6, yes SIX quarters of successive REASONABLE growth rates before we can say we are then RECOVERING!, and that will still mean caution should prevail.
The largest developed economy continues to deteriorate; Citigroup is to layoff 4,500 workers in next quarter, this is equivalent to 25% of the employees of each of our large banks. Whilst the  lack of recovery remains a crises in the US, we little minnows down here will continue to plough backwards. So keep the buckles tight on the trousers, we are in for a 5 year low period and at least a ten year stretch before we are back at, or better than, levels of 2007.