Well now...the latest RMB/BER reflects a positive growth across all sectors from a consumer and business confidence measure. Strange though - recent media reports stated Manufacturing stats to be below expectations yet confidence in this sector is on the increase? Now if the reality is reflecting a negative trend on what basis would business confidence show an upward sentiment?
SACCI correctly stated that although business confidence was up; "the tempo was still lagging the long term trend of the economy" Now that makes more sense does it not?
General consensus, including that of the Central Bank, indicates an expected GDP growth of under 3%, with the construction industry's (the largest potential employer of "the unemployed") confidence still remaining well below 50% - this is after all the engine that could get us out of the fragile economic conditions.
Now with annother round of anti-Labour Brokers strikes, this indicates that more negativity will prevail so it begs the question: "Who was surveyed to give these so-called positive sentiments around economic confidence?"
Further media reports state factory output unchanged for January (Huh??) what is the use of this information I ask? - factories are generally closed over December/January.
Then we had the "positivity" expressed from a consumer point of view over December - oh my goodness who measures anything worthwhile over December from a general stats point of view without taking into acccount this period's spending anomalies. So then why the suprise when January sales YOY are down "significantly" from 2011 - its staring at you in the face. 2012 is going to be a major struggle from a consumer point of view, so treat all GDP growth stats as suspect until such time that we can materially see a turnaround in the streets, i.e. when all these people walking around unemployed are off the streets and gainfully re-employed.
Then we had the "positivity" expressed from a consumer point of view over December - oh my goodness who measures anything worthwhile over December from a general stats point of view without taking into acccount this period's spending anomalies. So then why the suprise when January sales YOY are down "significantly" from 2011 - its staring at you in the face. 2012 is going to be a major struggle from a consumer point of view, so treat all GDP growth stats as suspect until such time that we can materially see a turnaround in the streets, i.e. when all these people walking around unemployed are off the streets and gainfully re-employed.
