Friday, January 28, 2011

Economic Gridlock - As frustrating as the Traffic

It strikes me that there is a good reason to use the analogy of traffic gridlock when one thinks about the current economic suituation. After all, take the Gauteng highways, one moment you can be hurtling along at 130km + when all of a sudden, and without apparent reason, you are slamming on brakes and screeching to a complete dead stop. Then the stop/start process begins, a real risk for an actual accident, when suddenly, again for no apparent reason, one is again on the move at the same speed and nothing is transparent that could have caused the halt.This propcess will occur at least 2/3 times on your commuting way each day.

Now take the economic situation: there we were pre 2008, hurtling along at an awesome speed and living la Vida, when all of a sudden and to us mortals, for no apparent reason, we were suddenly brought to a grinding halt. Then we had some stop/start activity in the form of the FIFA SWC 2010. Then followed another grinding halt and now we seem to be in very uncertain stop/start activity before we can once again hopefully (and sometime soon) proceed full steam ahead.
As with the traffic the next level of activity is outside our control, or is it?


Where are your Dogs?
Allow me to explain; we can all simply remain in grindstone mode and wait for "something else" to move our cheese, or we can begin to plan our own way out of this quagmire. After all, it remains true that unless we plan to move forward, stagnation will mean that we will shortly begin to regress. In times such as these there are opportunities a-plenty, bargains available that requires intuition from our part to take advantage of. At some stage "other" businesses must re-stock, people must buy vital things in order to keep rolling, what we need to establish, through a strategic intuitive planning process; is whether we are in those places directly or indirectly. If not, then why not? If we are then it may be time to begin to seriously consider our own sustainability and to begin to make strategic decisions. 
Do we remember the hit song of the early 2000's - Who Let The Dogs Out? - If you don't let your dogs out, then beware the dogs that are hunting you!

Another excellent reason to commence your business planning now is that the cost of capital is undoubtedly expected to rise sharply whilst the world is within this recessionary state, and more so once acceleration commences. This may place easy capital out of the reach of many. This rationale is supported by a recent article in Time Magazine's issue of 17th January under the title "The Curious Capitalist" by Rana Foroohar, wherein she states that the risk of financial protectionism is going to be high when nations are too nervous in allowing state funds to be invested outside their borders. Thus in those instances where nations are "short" of free cash, up goes the price of capital. No kudus if you can guess which nation is the only one with loads of cash??

The time is NOW to start planning. Give us a call - we can help.

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